BCAD affiliate Professor Gabriel Lenz’s research on the economy and elections was featured in The Atlantic

Whether or not consumers’ attitudes continue on this recent upward trajectory could be quite meaningful for Joe Biden’s reelection campaign. Experts I interviewed noted that, in general, a strong economy tends to favor the incumbent. Economic recovery ahead of an election can sometimes spell victory: Gabriel Lenz, a political-science professor at UC Berkeley, pointed to Harry Truman as an example of an incumbent who managed to win after a mediocre economy picked up just ahead of the election, in his case in the fall of 1948. In general, Lenz noted, even unpopular presidents have seen their approval ratings rise as the economy improves ahead of elections.

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